Kinetic Gain · Supply Chain Scenario Sim
synthetic baselines · disruption packets · recovery flows
logistics · supply chain · customs · inventory · carrier ops
Wave 7 · Industrial and infrastructure systems Supply chain / logistics proof Synthetic network, facility, and supplier scenarios

Supply-chain scenarios, constraint risks, and recovery posture that stay operator-readable.

This control plane turns raw logistics scenarios into one operator surface: supplier continuity, carrier congestion, customs blockers, inventory buffer pressure, service-level slips, and the recovery packets needed before launches, demand waves, or customer commitments drift.

Docs

routes · api · cli
routes
Public control surface

/, /scenario-lane, /constraint-risks, /recovery-posture, /verification, /docs

api
Structured payloads

/api/dashboard/summary, /api/scenario-lane, /api/constraint-risks, /api/recovery-posture, /api/verification, /api/sample

cli
Offline supply scenario analysis

npx supply-chain-scenario-sim fixtures/supply-clean.json --format summary renders the same posture the dashboard exposes.

Payload preview

sample export
{
  "summary": {
    "baselines": 2,
    "currentBaselines": 1,
    "scenarios": 6,
    "blockedFlows": 5,
    "lateLoads": 6,
    "recoveryPackets": 4,
    "highFindings": 5,
    "recommendation": "Protect supplier continuity, clear customs blockers, rebalance inventory buffers, and reroute carrier capacity before service-level commitments slip further."
  },
  "scenarioLane": [
    {
      "id": "supplier-continuity",
      "lane": "Supplier continuity lane",
      "family": "Supplier",
      "owner": "Strategic Sourcing",
      "focus": "Tier-1 component continuity and substitute path readiness",
      "status": "red",
      "note": "Partial supplier confirmation is already pushing recovery work into the commercial window.",
      "nextAction": "Confirm substitute capacity and lock the purchase split before the next production cut-off.",
      "relatedFindings": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "capacity-recovery",
      "lane": "Port and capacity lane",
      "family": "Carrier",
      "owner": "Transportation Control Tower",
      "focus": "Port dwell, linehaul capacity, and reroute options",
      "status": "yellow",
      "note": "Carrier congestion is understood but still needs a cleaner recovery path.",
      "nextAction": "Approve alternate drayage and reserve overflow linehaul before the dwell window expands.",
      "relatedFindings": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "border-clearance",
      "lane": "Border clearance lane",
      "family": "Customs",
      "owner": "Trade Compliance",
      "focus": "Broker escalation, document correction, and release timing",
      "status": "red",
      "note": "The customs hold is still active and is now service-level material.",
      "nextAction": "Correct the filing packet and escalate the broker queue before the next dispatch wave.",
      "relatedFindings": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "buffer-rebalance",
      "lane": "Inventory and demand lane",
      "family": "Inventory",
      "owner": "Fulfillment Operations",
      "focus": "Inventory buffer health and demand-driven reallocation",
      "status": "red",
      "note": "Buffer depth has slipped below the recovery threshold on a high-volume lane.",
      "nextAction": "Reallocate inventory and tighten the next inbound plan before service levels degrade further.",
      "relatedFindings": 2
    }
  ],
  "constraintRisks": [
    {
      "code": "inventory-buffer-breach",
      "severity": "high",
      "message": "Inventory buffer on \"facilities/dallas-crossdock\" is already below the recovery threshold and is exposing $18,400 in downstream revenue risk.",
      "subject": "scn-dfw-buffer",
      "subjectName": "facilities/dallas-crossdock",
      "scope": "FACILITY",
      "family": "Inventory",
      "service": "Dallas crossdock"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "high",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"facilities/dallas-crossdock\" is 88% against a 96% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-dfw-buffer",
      "subjectName": "facilities/dallas-crossdock",
      "scope": "FACILITY",
      "family": "Inventory",
      "service": "Dallas crossdock"
    },
    {
      "code": "supplier-failure-risk",
      "severity": "high",
      "message": "Supplier continuity risk is active on \"suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster\" and should be routed before replenishment and launch commitments slip.",
      "subject": "scn-shenzhen-supplier",
      "subjectName": "suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster",
      "scope": "SUPPLIER",
      "family": "Supplier",
      "service": "Supplier cluster"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "high",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster\" is 91% against a 97% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-shenzhen-supplier",
      "subjectName": "suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster",
      "scope": "SUPPLIER",
      "family": "Supplier",
      "service": "Supplier cluster"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "high",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry\" is 90% against a 96% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-rotterdam-customs",
      "subjectName": "regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry",
      "scope": "REGION",
      "family": "Customs",
      "service": "Customs + broker queue"
    },
    {
      "code": "stale-baseline",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Supply baseline for \"EMEA Cold Chain Lane\" is stale and should be refreshed before certifying recovery posture.",
      "subject": "emea-cold-chain",
      "subjectName": "regions/emea-cold-chain",
      "scope": "REGION"
    },
    {
      "code": "carrier-capacity-shock",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Carrier capacity shock is active on \"regions/pacific-import-lane\" and should be rerouted before lead-time variance compounds further.",
      "subject": "scn-long-beach-capacity",
      "subjectName": "regions/pacific-import-lane",
      "scope": "REGION",
      "family": "Carrier",
      "service": "Ocean + drayage network"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"regions/pacific-import-lane\" is 93% against a 97% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-long-beach-capacity",
      "subjectName": "regions/pacific-import-lane",
      "scope": "REGION",
      "family": "Carrier",
      "service": "Ocean + drayage network"
    },
    {
      "code": "customs-hold-risk",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Customs or cross-border hold is active on \"regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry\" and should be cleared before committed delivery windows break.",
      "subject": "scn-rotterdam-customs",
      "subjectName": "regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry",
      "scope": "REGION",
      "family": "Customs",
      "service": "Customs + broker queue"
    },
    {
      "code": "stale-scenario-window",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Scenario on \"regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry\" has remained unresolved for 52 hours.",
      "subject": "scn-rotterdam-customs",
      "subjectName": "regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry",
      "scope": "REGION",
      "family": "Customs",
      "service": "Customs + broker queue"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"networks/northeast-ecommerce-lane\" is 94% against a 95% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-demand-surge",
      "subjectName": "networks/northeast-ecommerce-lane",
      "scope": "NETWORK",
      "family": "Demand",
      "service": "Demand planning lane"
    },
    {
      "code": "service-level-slip",
      "severity": "medium",
      "message": "Projected service level on \"networks/midwest-weather-reroute\" is 95% against a 97% target and needs intervention.",
      "subject": "scn-weather-reroute",
      "subjectName": "networks/midwest-weather-reroute",
      "scope": "NETWORK",
      "family": "Weather",
      "service": "Midwest regional flow"
    },
    {
      "code": "stale-scenario-window",
      "severity": "low",
      "message": "Scenario on \"suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster\" has remained unresolved for 30 hours.",
      "subject": "scn-shenzhen-supplier",
      "subjectName": "suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster",
      "scope": "SUPPLIER",
      "family": "Supplier",
      "service": "Supplier cluster"
    },
    {
      "code": "stale-scenario-window",
      "severity": "low",
      "message": "Scenario on \"networks/midwest-weather-reroute\" has remained unresolved for 27 hours.",
      "subject": "scn-weather-reroute",
      "subjectName": "networks/midwest-weather-reroute",
      "scope": "NETWORK",
      "family": "Weather",
      "service": "Midwest regional flow"
    }
  ],
  "recoveryPosture": [
    {
      "packetId": "SIM-11",
      "lane": "Supplier substitute packet",
      "owner": "Strategic Sourcing",
      "status": "red",
      "completenessScore": 61,
      "decisionNote": "Supplier continuity needs a substitute sourcing path before launch-safe replenishment can be claimed.",
      "blocker": "Secondary source approval and component QA sign-off are still open.",
      "launchWindowHours": 10
    },
    {
      "packetId": "SIM-18",
      "lane": "Carrier reroute packet",
      "owner": "Transportation Control Tower",
      "status": "yellow",
      "completenessScore": 73,
      "decisionNote": "Capacity is understood, but overflow routing and carrier commitments are not fully locked.",
      "blocker": "Alternate drayage confirmation and port-priority slotting are still pending.",
      "launchWindowHours": 12
    },
    {
      "packetId": "SIM-24",
      "lane": "Customs release packet",
      "owner": "Trade Compliance",
      "status": "red",
      "completenessScore": 58,
      "decisionNote": "Customs release cannot be called stable until the corrected filing clears broker review.",
      "blocker": "Supporting paperwork and broker escalation are incomplete.",
      "launchWindowHours": 8
    },
    {
      "packetId": "SIM-31",
      "lane": "Inventory rebalance packet",
      "owner": "Fulfillment Operations",
      "status": "red",
      "completenessScore": 64,
      "decisionNote": "Inventory recovery is mapped, but the lane is still below the required service buffer.",
      "blocker": "Outbound allocation and inbound acceleration are not both confirmed yet.",
      "launchWindowHours": 6
    }
  ],
  "verification": [
    "The dashboard is backed by a real offline analyzer and CLI, not static copy alone.",
    "Baselines, scenarios, and recovery packets are synthetic sample data only; no live ERP, WMS, TMS, or customs credentials are published.",
    "The control plane keeps supplier, carrier, customs, inventory, and service-level pressure visible for operations and fulfillment teams.",
    "This surface demonstrates supply-chain scenario simulation and operator routing, not a generic logistics keyword page.",
    "It complements the industrial, commerce, and field workflow Atlas lanes with a direct logistics operator proof surface."
  ],
  "sample": {
    "baselines": [
      {
        "id": "na-network-core",
        "name": "North America Core Network",
        "scope": "NETWORK",
        "scopePath": "networks/north-america-core",
        "baselineStatus": "CURRENT",
        "owner": "Supply Operations",
        "weeklyVolumeUnits": 148000,
        "inventoryBufferDays": 11,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 97,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 4,
        "collectedAt": "2026-05-30T09:00:00Z"
      },
      {
        "id": "emea-cold-chain",
        "name": "EMEA Cold Chain Lane",
        "scope": "REGION",
        "scopePath": "regions/emea-cold-chain",
        "baselineStatus": "STALE",
        "owner": "Regional Logistics",
        "weeklyVolumeUnits": 41200,
        "inventoryBufferDays": 8,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 96,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 5,
        "collectedAt": "2026-05-27T00:10:00Z"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "id": "scn-dfw-buffer",
        "baselineId": "na-network-core",
        "scope": "FACILITY",
        "scopePath": "facilities/dallas-crossdock",
        "family": "Inventory",
        "status": "OPEN",
        "node": "Dallas crossdock",
        "expectedState": "Buffer remains above seven days for outbound kits",
        "observedState": "Inventory buffer down to three days after late inbound replenishment",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 18400,
        "changeWindowHours": 16,
        "owner": "Fulfillment Operations",
        "breaksGuardrail": true,
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 88,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 96,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 6,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "scn-shenzhen-supplier",
        "baselineId": "na-network-core",
        "scope": "SUPPLIER",
        "scopePath": "suppliers/shenzhen-components-cluster",
        "family": "Supplier",
        "status": "OPEN",
        "node": "Supplier cluster",
        "expectedState": "Tier-1 supplier confirms the next two weekly component waves",
        "observedState": "Supplier shortage flagged on the next production lot with partial confirmation only",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 21300,
        "changeWindowHours": 30,
        "owner": "Strategic Sourcing",
        "breaksGuardrail": true,
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 91,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 97,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 9,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 5
      },
      {
        "id": "scn-long-beach-capacity",
        "baselineId": "na-network-core",
        "scope": "REGION",
        "scopePath": "regions/pacific-import-lane",
        "family": "Carrier",
        "status": "ACKNOWLEDGED",
        "node": "Ocean + drayage network",
        "expectedState": "Carrier capacity remains within the committed import window",
        "observedState": "Carrier congestion and drayage capacity squeeze are extending port dwell",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 9200,
        "changeWindowHours": 19,
        "owner": "Transportation Control Tower",
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 93,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 97,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 7,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 5
      },
      {
        "id": "scn-rotterdam-customs",
        "baselineId": "emea-cold-chain",
        "scope": "REGION",
        "scopePath": "regions/rotterdam-pharma-entry",
        "family": "Customs",
        "status": "OPEN",
        "node": "Customs + broker queue",
        "expectedState": "Cross-border clearance completes in the normal release window",
        "observedState": "Customs hold remains open pending documentation correction",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 7600,
        "changeWindowHours": 52,
        "owner": "Trade Compliance",
        "breaksGuardrail": true,
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 90,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 96,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 8,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 5
      },
      {
        "id": "scn-demand-surge",
        "baselineId": "na-network-core",
        "scope": "NETWORK",
        "scopePath": "networks/northeast-ecommerce-lane",
        "family": "Demand",
        "status": "ACKNOWLEDGED",
        "node": "Demand planning lane",
        "expectedState": "Promo-driven demand remains within modeled capacity and buffer tolerance",
        "observedState": "Demand surge is running above the modeled ceiling on the current weekly wave",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 5400,
        "changeWindowHours": 14,
        "owner": "Demand Planning",
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 94,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 95,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 5,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 4
      },
      {
        "id": "scn-weather-reroute",
        "baselineId": "na-network-core",
        "scope": "NETWORK",
        "scopePath": "networks/midwest-weather-reroute",
        "family": "Weather",
        "status": "ROUTED",
        "node": "Midwest regional flow",
        "expectedState": "Weather reroute keeps linehaul and delivery posture within tolerance",
        "observedState": "Storm reroute still adds one-day lead time variance across the current window",
        "estimatedRevenueAtRiskUsd": 3800,
        "changeWindowHours": 27,
        "owner": "Network Planning",
        "projectedServiceLevelPct": 95,
        "targetServiceLevelPct": 97,
        "projectedLeadTimeDays": 5,
        "targetLeadTimeDays": 4
      }
    ]
  }
}